Biggest Weekly Mortgage Rate Increase in Since April 2025
Residential mortgage rates climbed this week as financial and energy markets reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East following the launch of Operation EPIC FURY on February 28, 2026. The operation, a U.S.-led campaign in coordination with Israel targeting Iran’s nuclear, missile, naval, and related infrastructure, threatened earlier-year gains in housing affordability. Rising oil prices, which often signal higher inflation, and added upward pressure on borrowing costs.
Freddie Mac reported this week that the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.11% for the week ending March 12, 2026 — up from 6.00% the previous week. The jump marked the largest weekly gain since April 2025, when Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered a surge in Treasury yields.
Sam Khater
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage returned to last month’s levels,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “While the uptick is modest, homebuyers continue to engage with the market. Existing-home sales rose 1.7% in February, and purchase applications increased this week, indicating resilient demand as the spring homebuying season gets underway.”
The survey also showed the average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.50%, up from 5.43% the previous week, but still below the 5.80% recorded at the same time last year.
Despite the short-term volatility, rates remain roughly half a percentage point below year-ago levels, offering some relief to buyers navigating an already expensive housing market. Analysts said the recent spike underscores how geopolitical events, oil prices, and bond market volatility continue to influence mortgage costs, even as domestic economic indicators point to steady housing demand.
Market observers noted that higher oil prices can stoke inflation expectations, which in turn tend to push Treasury yields–and consequently mortgage rates–higher. As geopolitical uncertainty persists, mortgage rates are expected to remain sensitive to developments in both the energy and bond markets.
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