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Pre-announcement: upcoming changes to the HICP
As of 4 February 2026, several methodological changes will take effect in the HICP. The index will be compiled according to the new European Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose version 2, aligned with the UN COICOP 2018 classification. Games of chance will be included in the HICP as part of Recreation services under the division of Recreation, sport and culture. The index reference period will also be updated to 2025=100.
Overview
Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.0% in December 2025, down from 2.1% in November according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, services is expected to have the highest annual rate in December (3.4%, compared with 3.5% in November), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%, compared with 2.4% in November), non-energy industrial goods (0.4%, compared with 0.5% in November) and energy (-1.9%, compared with -0.5% in November).
Tables
|
Euro area annual inflation and its components (%) |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Weights (‰) |
Annual rate |
Monthly rate |
|||||||
|
2025 |
Dec 24 |
Jul 25 |
Aug 25 |
Sep 25 |
Oct 25 |
Nov 25 |
Dec 25 |
Dec 25 |
|
|
1000.0 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0e |
0.2e |
|
|
906.0 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4e |
0.3e |
|
|
863.4 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3e |
0.2e |
|
|
712.8 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3e |
0.3e |
|
|
193.3 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.6e |
0.1e |
|
|
150.6 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.1e |
-0.2e |
|
|
42.7 |
1.6 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
4.2e |
0.8e |
|
|
94.0 |
0.1 |
-2.4 |
-2.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
-1.9e |
-0.8e |
|
|
256.3 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.4e |
-0.3e |
|
|
456.5 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.4e |
0.7e |
|
Inflation rates (%) measured by the HICP |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Annual rate |
Monthly rate |
|||||||
|
Dec 24 |
Jul 25 |
Aug 25 |
Sep 25 |
Oct 25 |
Nov 25 |
Dec 25 |
Dec 25 |
|
|
4.4 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.2e |
0.3e |
|
|
2.8 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.0e |
0.2e |
|
|
4.1 |
5.6 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.1e |
-0.4e |
|
|
1.0 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
2.7e |
0.6e |
|
|
2.9 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
2.9e |
0.2e |
|
|
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.0e |
0.3e |
|
|
1.8 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7e |
0.1e |
|
|
4.5 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
3.8e |
-0.3e |
|
|
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.2e |
0.2e |
|
|
3.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1e |
-0.4e |
|
|
3.4 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.5e |
0.0e |
|
|
1.9 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.2e |
-0.2e |
|
|
1.6 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
3.3e |
-0.2e |
|
|
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.3e |
-0.5e |
|
|
3.9 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.5e |
0.2e |
|
|
2.1 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.9e |
0.6e |
|
|
3.1 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.4e |
0.0e |
|
|
2.0 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.7 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
2.6e |
0.1e |
|
|
3.2 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
4.1e |
-0.3e |
|
|
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.8e |
0.4e |
Notes for users
Revisions and timetable
The euro area inflation flash estimate is issued at the end of each reference month.
The complete set of harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) for the euro area, EU and Member States is released around the middle of the month following the reference month.
The next release with full data for December 2025 is scheduled for 19 January 2026.
Methods and definitions
Annual inflation is the price change of consumer goods and services between the current month and the same month of the previous year. Monthly inflation is the price change between the current month and the previous month.
Geographical information
The euro area consists of Belgium, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland.
The euro area data refer to the country composition at a specific point in time. Changes in the composition of the euro area are incorporated using a chain index formula.
For more information
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