According to property consultant Avison Young, Warsaw — Poland’s prime real estate investment market posted steady results through the first three quarters of 2025, with year-to-date transaction volumes closely mirroring those of the same period in 2024. By the end of September, total investment volume reached $3.02 billion across 105 deals, signaling growing liquidity and renewed confidence among domestic investors. While Polish capital has been increasingly active, core institutional buyers remain cautious, with just two transactions surpassing the $116.5 million threshold.
Domestic Investors Gain Momentum
Office and industrial properties dominated market activity in the first nine months of the year. Office deals, in particular, saw more than half of the transaction volume driven by Polish investors, reflecting a growing willingness among local buyers to seize value-add and opportunistic opportunities. Industrial investments, while lower in deal count, delivered significant transaction value, highlighting the sector’s strategic importance.
Retail assets, including retail parks and redevelopment projects, demonstrated resilience, maintaining steady liquidity. Meanwhile, Poland’s residential and student housing segments saw a handful of secondary market transactions close, with attention now turning to a record-setting acquisition of 18 Resi4Rent assets by Vantage Development.
Overall, the market’s solid performance is underpinned by strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Analysts anticipate that a return of core capital and the completion of large portfolio deals will further boost investment activity in the coming quarters.
Market Snapshot: Q1-Q3 2025
- Total investment volume: $3.02 billion ($964 million in Q3)
- Transactions: 105 vs. 87 in Q1-Q3 2024
- Volume roughly in line with $3.26 billion recorded during the same period in 2024
- Polish capital share: 23% of total volume, up from 10% in Q1-Q3 2024
Office Sector Leads with Domestic Confidence
The office market emerged as the most active sector, both in terms of transaction volume and deal count, with total investments of $1.05 billion across 36 deals. The largest office transaction involved Mennica Polska’s acquisition of a 50% stake in Mennica Legacy Tower, the only office deal exceeding $116.5 million. Other notable acquisitions included prime Warsaw office properties such as Vibe, Plac Zamkowy – Business with Heritage, Wronia 31, and High 5ive I & II in Kraków.
Average deal size hovered slightly above $29 million, highlighting the predominance of value-add and opportunistic strategies. Domestic investors accounted for 51% of office transaction volume, including several owner-occupier deals, reflecting growing local confidence. Core capital, meanwhile, remained subdued, completing just five office transactions through September.
“Core investors continue to exercise caution amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, while opportunistic and value-add buyers selectively pursue opportunities,” said Marcin Purgal, Senior Director of Investment at Avison Young. “Polish capital is increasingly active, driving over half of office volume and deals.”
Industrial Market: High Value, Limited Transactions
Industrial properties accounted for $1.02 billion, roughly one-third of total investment volume, despite a modest number of deals. Sale-and-leaseback transactions represented 44% of sector volume, including the landmark purchase of two Eko-Okna properties by Realty Income–the largest sale-and-leaseback transaction ever in Central and Eastern Europe.
Investment activity extended beyond Poland’s primary hubs, with 17% of volume concentrated in emerging regions like Bydgoszcz and Rzeszów, and 16% in smaller centers including Olsztyn and Opole. Analysts note that moderate liquidity persists as investors navigate the balance between buyer expectations and seller pricing.
“Sale-and-leaseback deals offer stable, long-term income streams while limiting operational exposure,” said Bartłomiej Krzyżak, Senior Director of Investment at Avison Young. “However, careful due diligence remains essential to mitigate re-leasing and tenant risks.”
Retail Sector: Retail Parks and Redevelopment Drive Interest
The retail sector recorded $528 million in investment volume through September, with retail parks and convenience-focused assets dominating transactions. Two-thirds of all retail deals, representing 56% of sector volume, involved retail parks, grocery stores, or convenience schemes, while redevelopment projects accounted for 20%, mainly targeting shopping centers and stand-alone retail warehouses for conversion to residential use.
Regional shopping centers also attracted interest, with six centers sold across four transactions. Notably, Czech investor My Park acquired a 10-asset A Centrum convenience portfolio, exemplifying the sector’s appeal to first-time and cross-border investors.
“Retail parks provide an accessible entry point into the Polish market, offering stable income and attractive locations in growing regional cities,” said Artur Czuba, Director of Investment at Avison Young.
Market Outlook
Poland’s investment market benefits from solid economic growth, improving lending conditions, and increasingly attractive pricing. Analysts expect continued activity from domestic and mid-cap investors across all asset classes, while a return of core capital could drive prime, large-scale transactions in the coming months.
With interest rates anticipated to decline, buyers are positioned to capture favorable yields before property valuations adjust. Smaller real estate formats with long WAULTs are likely to remain attractive, while Polish investors continue to expand their footprint across office, industrial, retail, and residential markets.
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