U.S. homebuilder sentiment weakened at the start of the year, underscoring persistent affordability strains on buyers even as mortgage rates show early signs of easing.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell two points in January 2026 to 37, extending a period of subdued confidence well below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The decline reflects continued pressure from high home prices, elevated borrowing costs, and rising construction expenses, particularly in the entry-level and mid-priced segments of the market.
While demand for higher-end homes remains relatively resilient, builders say affordability challenges are increasingly constraining buyer activity elsewhere. Elevated price-to-income ratios have made down payments harder to assemble, limiting the pool of qualified buyers and dampening sales momentum.
Mortgage rates have begun to retreat, offering a potential tailwind. Freddie Mac reported the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.06% as of mid-January, the lowest level in three years and nearly a full percentage point below year-earlier levels. Still, most builder responses for the January survey were collected before the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a move aimed at further easing borrowing costs.
Despite the prospect of lower rates, builders continue to face significant supply-side constraints. Shortages of skilled labor and buildable lots, along with elevated regulatory burdens and material costs, are weighing on outlooks. Reflecting these pressures, the HMI component measuring expected sales over the next six months fell three points to 49, slipping below the neutral level for the first time since September.
Signs of market stress are also evident in pricing behavior. Forty percent of builders reported cutting home prices in January, unchanged from December and marking the third straight month that price reductions have reached that level or higher. The average price cut increased to 6% from 5% a month earlier. Sales incentives remained widespread, with 65% of builders offering concessions, extending a streak of more than ten months above 60%.
All major components of the index declined. The measure of current sales conditions edged down to 41, while buyer traffic fell sharply to 23, highlighting continued caution among prospective purchasers.
Regionally, sentiment remained uneven. Three-month moving averages showed confidence slipping in the Northeast and South, holding steady in the Midwest, and inching higher in the West, though all regions remained well below levels consistent with broad market strength.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo index, based on a monthly survey of single-family homebuilders conducted for more than four decades, remains a closely watched barometer of housing market conditions and future construction activity.
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